As a nearly stationary upper system spins over the Missouri Valley, additional individuals pieces of energy continue to rotate around it, One spun threw the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday evening and delivered the season’s first widespread severe weather event with a total of 168 severe weather reports. Of those, 5 were of tornadoes with four being reported in Arkansas and one in Louisiana. The remainder was of large hail and damaging winds.
Of the tornadoes that occurred, it appears the strongest may have occurred across three counties in central Arkansas: Saline, southwest of Little Rock, and White and Cleburne Counties northeast of Little Rock. The tornado in Saline County occurred around 6:30 PM near the community of Benton and tracked to the northeast. Per the National Weather Service, at least 20 houses were damaged but no injuries. The same complex of storms later spun up the additional tornados in White and in Cleburne Counties. The tornado that touched down in White County did so near the community of Center Hill around 8:30 PM. The National Weather Service reports that at least nine houses were damaged and one injury occurred. The third tornado occurred shortly after 9 PM in Cleburne County near the community of Pearson. Several homes were badly damaged and at least 3 severe injuries were reported by the National Weather Service. The county sheriff has released additional information confirming that there was one fatality associated with the tornado.
Here is some video of some of the funnel clouds and possible tornado from Fox 16 in Little Rock
Another tornado touched down in Arkansas near Ozan in Hempstead County where it did minor damage to a building. The final tornado touched down in southeast Louisiana near the community of Terrebonne in Cocodrie Parish.
The National Weather Service forecast offices in Little Rock, Shreveport and New Orleans will send survey crews out today to confirm the damage and to identify the strength of the tornadoes and to see if any additional tornadoes occurred.
For today, the next piece of energy is now spinning out of New Mexico. It will track across Texas through Thursday and into the lower Mississippi Valley early Friday. As it does so, it will likely begin to develop more thunderstorms across Louisiana and Arkansas this evening. Some of these storms may reach severe limits. A better chance of severe weather will occur after midnight across northern Mississippi and spreading eastward across Alabama into Georgia during the morning and afternoon hours of Friday. Most likely severe weather threat will be large hail and damaging winds.
Strong to severe storms will also be likely across much of Florida, today. Especially for those of you along and south of I-4 with the main threat being strong gusty winds.
A nearly stationary weather pattern is going to equal a busy, unsettled weather week for most of us east of the Rockies. First of several impulses is spinning around a cut-off upper rotation over the Plains. It his bringing a band of rain/showers from the Mississippi River eastward and I-70 northward, today. The next piece of energy will rotate eastward out of the 4-corners region on Wednesday and by late Wednesday evening will be making its way into southeast Kansas. This will set up for the potential of some strong and even severe thunderstorms Wednesday late afternoon through early Thursday morning from northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and northward through much of Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. The highest likelihood for severe weather will be from the ArklaTex northward into southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri. A slight tornadic risk will exist initially as the severe weather begins but the main threat will quickly transition to damaging winds and hail. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this region of the nation under a "Slight Risk" of severe weather for Wednesday.
Thursday…during the early morning hours an additional severe weather risk area will develop across southern Mississippi/southern Alabama and extreme western Florida and the threat will likely linger into the mid-morning hours. Again, there will be an initial risk for a few tornadoes but the primary threat will be damaging winds and hail. By the afternoon hours, a slowly eastward progressing frontal system may initiate additional strong to severe storms across the Mid-South/TN Valley/Southern Ohio Valley. Again, the primary risk would likely be damaging winds and hail with only isolated tornadoes. At this point, SPC still has some uncertainty regarding the severe weather threat and as a result has decided not to issue a risk area, as of yet. In addition to the potential for some strong to severe storms over portions of the nation on Thursday, a risk for some heavy rainfall is possible along the I-70 corridor from Topeka to Indianapolis and northward to the I-90 corridor from Wisconsin into southeast South Dakota. This means the potential for flooding due to rapid snow melt across portions of the upper Midwest.
Friday…Rains will begin spreading northward through the Mid-Atlantic and into southern New England during the morning hours. A low will also be wrapping itself up across the Southeast and will begin moving to the NE. A wide swath of clouds with showers will exist from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast. Windy and cooler conditions will also begin appearing behind this system across much of the Midwest. Potential heavy rains are possible from the Mid-Atlantic to New York and this could begin leading to rapid snow melt and increasing the flood threat.
Saturday…The slow moving storm system will make its way into the Mid-Atlantic pushing the heavy and prolonged rains into New England. Still following the system will likely be a large cloud shield with scattered rain showers, breezy and cooler conditions.
Sunday…Little change is expected as the storm system spins about moving very little.
Here is one computer forecast for rainfall over the next 7-Days.
A week from now is when the pattern may begin to shake up as a ridge is forecast to build eastward from the western U.S. but that is still a bit of a way out there and as we all know things can change quite easily. I just hope you were able to enjoy the nice weekend many of us experienced because the next 5 to 7 days are not looking very nice unless you are a duck.
For those of you along and east of the Rockies and south, still a nice weekend is expected. The only exception will be in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest where a system will be passing through delivering a chance for some chilly rains. The rest of us, especially those of us along and east of the Mississippi River, will see quite a bit of sunshine. In addition, we will see some nice warming temperatures. By Sunday afternoon, the 60 degree temperatures will reach as far north as Kansas City and through the Carolinas into south-central Virginia. The warming will continue into the beginning of next week along and south of I-40. Monday we will likely see temperatures making into the mid 70s across much of southern Texas with even 80s popping up near the Mexican border. In fact, 70s will be possible along and south of I-20 from Shreveport to Birmingham and southeastward through southern Georgia and into Florida.
But the nice weather won't last for to long. Several storm systems moving quickly will move on shore in the West and move east. The first will do so Friday into Saturday and begin delivering rain and storms to the Plains on Sunday. A few strong and possibly severe storms are possible Sunday night into Monday across east Texas. On Monday, the storms will impact the Arklatex and by Tuesday move into the central Gulf Coast.
Additional storm systems will then be eying the Pacific Coast and moving east providing more storminess late next week.
System moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and through the Southeast today has already delivered a wide swath of wet snow accumulation through Alabama and into northern Georgia. Some of the higher terrain of northeast Alabama has seen 3” to 6” of accumulation. The highest totals received so far: Lookout Mtn-Chattanooga, TN (7”), Pisgah, AL (6”), Coker Creek, TN (6”), Collinsville, AL (5”), Mentone, AL (4”), Hayesville, NC (4”), Whitewell, TN (4”), SE Huntsville, AL (3”), Arab, AL (3”), Albertville, AL (3”) and Grant, AL (3”).
Additional pictures from the Chattanooga area and northern Georgia from WRCB-TV available here.
This system will continue to track NNE along the Atlantic coast over the next 48 hours and will continue to deliver a wide swath of heavy wet snow accumulation along the Appalachians from South Carolina into Pennsylvania. Much of the mountains will see 4” to 6” of accumulation while the valleys will see 1” to 3” of slushy accumulation. Roads in many cases will only become slushy during the heaviest snowfall bursts, except for higher elevations. Minor accumulations will likely encompass much of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland. Snow accumulations will likely pick up again from northeast Maryland through southeast Pennsylvania into New England. First forecast numbers for a few key cities:
Raleigh, NC – 2” to 4”
Washington, DC – 1” to 2”
Baltimore, MD – 1” to 2”
Philadelphia, PA – 2” to 4”
New York, NY – 3” to 6”
Hartford, CT – 5” to 8”
Boston, MA – 6” to 9”
After this storm passes the weather turns quiet for the remainder of the week from the Rockies eastward. In fact, a nice warming trend is in store for most of us providing for a nice Spring-like weekend. Hope many of you will be able to get out and enjoy it after the winter we have had!
Computer Forecast Highs for Saturday
Computer Forecast Highs for Sunday
However, even though it will be much warmer, this weekend’s highs will still range about 4 to 8 degrees below normal from Texas to New England while becoming 4 to 8 degrees above normal in the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Sunday's Forecast Highs versus Normal
It won’t be as nice for those west of the Rockies as the next storm system will roll out of the Pacific and into California on Friday. More heavy rain is possible for much of the state with some heavy snow in the highest elevations of the Sierras. The storm system and rains will move through Arizona and Utah Saturday night through Sunday. This storm system will then eye the Plains for early next week and may become the season’s first severe weather threat for much of the nation along and south of I-70 from Kansas to Indiana. This will be monitored closely and I will post updates regarding any possible severe weather threat as we near the event.
Since severe weather may be on the way, I strongly encourage you to begin preparing and have your severe weather plan in order. Know where you are going to go in a severe weather event whether you are at home, school, work, public place or in a car. You should also have a working battery operated TV and/or radio and flashlight. I also recommend a NOAA weather radio and Weather Call. If you are not familiar with Weather Call, simply click the link to learn more. In my opinion, Weather Call is the most advanced and life-saving piece of technology available with regards to notifying you in a very timely manner of severe weather and tornado warnings. It is based on the new warning method of storm based warnings versus the old-fashioned method of issuing warnings via an entire county. This increases effectiveness and awareness of the warnings which in turn can save more lives. I strongly encourage you to at least check it out and learn more. And “Yes”, the service is available to anyone in the lower 48 even though the link is via WAAY-TV in Huntsville.
Now, if you have been thinking to yourself, “boy it sure seems like it has been quiet regarding severe weather this year?” you are right. February 2010, was the first February since records have been kept in 1950 in which there were NO tornados reported. You can read more about that here.
Posted on 25 February 2010 | 9:03 pm by Dale Bader
The trend of cooler than normal conditions like that we have already seen across much of the nation this winter is expected to continue this Spring, especially for those along and south of I-70. However, the El Nino that has been in place is in a rapid weakening stage and by the time we get to the start of summer we will likely be seeing near neutral conditions again in the equatorial Pacific.
The El Nino has delivered its normal calling card this winter, an active and strong southern jet steam. As the El Nino continues to weaken, there will be a lag in the weakening of the southern jet stream and as a result it will remain active and that will likely lead to above average rainfall from southern California into Texas, along the Gulf Coast and up along the Atlantic Coast.
Through March, I anticipate the northern jet stream to reign king with the southern jet just adding to the pain. That means a cold month with occasional snow. Best chances for seeing more snow will be from the Mid-Atlantic into New England and westward into the Ohio Valley. With regards to severe weather I anticipate March to be relatively quiet.
April will see the southern jet reigning as king as it gives it its last go at it with occasional intrusions of cold air still sinking southward, but much less often than in February and March. This will lead to a relatively wet month for many and that will also mean an enhanced threat for severe weather. In fact, those in the southern U.S. will likely see their stormiest period of the Spring with the most severe weather.
By May, the southern jet stream will finally weaken in response to the weakening El Nino and the more neutral conditions in the Pacific. This will lead a pleasant change for most of us, above normal temperatures. In fact, some of us may look back and wonder what happened to Spring as we go quickly from a winter-like feel to a summerish one. It will also dry out across much of the southern tier of the U.S. where the active southern jet stream had been bringing several wet systems earlier in the Spring. Severe weather will remain a threat but will begin shifting northward into the Heartland.
Overall, I expected fewer days with severe weather this Spring; however, don’t let your guard down. Even though I foresee fewer days with severe weather I anticipate the intensity of the severe weather to be a bit stronger. Meaning the opportunity will exist for more large, severe tornadoes (EF-3 and greater).
Posted on 23 February 2010 | 7:44 pm by Dale Bader
Some of us saw a beautiful weekend and a taste of spring but don't be fooled, Spring is not here yet. Another active couple of weeks are in store for the eastern U.S. Currently, a storm is putting down accumulating snow across Texas, again. This time the heavy snow is further south than the storm a few weeks ago that brought the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex 8" to 12". This storm will continue to progress southeastward into the Gulf of Mexico, tonight. Accumulating snow will make it into central Louisiana and then fade. The energy of the system will transfer into a new area of low pressure that will ride northward along the Atlantic coast. A new area of light accumulating snow will develop across the western Carolinas on Wednesday. It will continue to spread northward as the storm moves northward. That means more snow for the Mid-Atlantic but much, much less than in previous storms this winter, only a couple of inches at best. The storm merges with additional upper level energy by Thursday morning as the low approaches the Mid-Atlantic and WOW!
This set up an Impressive Nor'Easter for Thursday into Friday, possibly the strongest storm I have seen in my short 15 years in forecasting. Along and north of I-80 in Pennsylvania and north and eastward through New York, New Jersey and throughout New England, massive snow is likely with winds that will howl, 20-40 MPH, too. Forecast models are indicating a potential minimum pressure of the system as 980 millibars or 28.93" of mercury. The "Great Blizzard of 1888" had a minimum central pressure of 982 mb and had winds in excess of 45 mph. Snowfall with that storm was between 40" and 50" in spots. A scenario similar appears to be setting up. Will we see snowfall in excess of 40"? Possibly yes. At this point the most likely location for the most extreme snowfall will be from northern Pennsylvania through much of New York and into New England. My first forecast for New York City is 12" to 18".
Now for next week, I have been watching the long range models since last week for a possible storm during the first few days of March. Knowing how the models typically work, their solutions traditionally flip and flop and go all around but the key is to watch their trends and look at the BIG picture. One thing that is appearing to me is consistency and a general trend that a potential BIG storm is brewing for the start of March. The energy that will help develop this storm is currently south of the western tip of the Aleutian Islands in Alaska.
So where is this storm to spin up? It appears it will be another Gulf system that will track up the Eastern U.S. coast. Still a lot of questions regarding the storm such as the intensity of the upper level energy and specific track but there is the potential for yet another accumulating snow in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Definitely a watcher. I will keep you up-to-date on this storm over the next few days.
Lastly, if you live in the Tennessee Valley make sure to tune into WAAY 31 News tonight at 10 PM for the Tennessee Valley Spring Outlook. For the rest of you, I will post the national Spring Outlook by Thursday evening. If all goes well I will have it posted on Wednesday.
Posted on 13 February 2010 | 4:12 pm by Dale Bader
I wanted to provide this post yesterday but I was WAAY to busy at the station with regards to the horrific shooting at the University of Alabama Huntsville. My thoughts and prayers are with the injured and the affected families. May God bring all involved peace during this trying time. I still am at wonder at how someone could do such a heinous act of violence on others. I know I have had days go "really" bad but I would never think of shooting others. Even if I was extremely frustrated with others. The last week for those of us in northern Alabama has been shocking. Never did we think it would happen here but now it has, TWICE! It is time now for all of us to bind closer to bring back our sense of security for the region.
Now, back to what I do and love, forecasting the weather. A very strong upper level disturbance and associated surface "Clipper" system will be dropping out of central Canada and will be diving southward through the Plains Saturday and Saturday night. With it will be a wide swath of 2" to 5" of new snowfall. This area will stretch from the eastern Dakotas through southwestern Minnesota and western Iowa, yes Des Moines looks like more snow for you. The 2"-5" snow will continue to stretch southeastward through much of Missouri for Chillicothe to St. Louis to Paducah. Then it appears that the 2" to 4" band will greatly widen as we head through Sunday night and Monday. I will draw the northern boundary of the 2"-5" along the Ohio River from Paducah to Cincinnati then up to Canton, Ohio then eastward to Williamsport, Pennsylvania, northward to Syracuse. On the southend, will start the boundary Newark, New Jersey to Philadelphia to Baltimore to Bristol, Virginia, along the spine of the Appalachians into Chattanooga, across northern Jackson County in Alabama into Franklin County Tennessee to Crossville, TN to Paducah. Surround the 2"-5" will be a large area of 1" to 2" of snow that will sink back into the south from Jackson, Mississippi to Birmingham to near Atlanta. For those of you in Alabama and especially the Tennessee Valley, I encourage you to check back later this evening after 8 PM as I will refine my thoughts.
Posted on 11 February 2010 | 6:29 pm by Dale Bader
Models this morning continue the trend of ticking northward and every little tick northward shifts the potential heavy snow and accumulating snow a tad further north. However, still appears that significant widespread moderate to heavy snowfall is expected in areas not accustomed to it. The snow is already ongoing in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex and I admit that as of Wednesday, I anticipated the heavy snow setting up just to its south. That isn't my thought, now. Looks like the Metroplex will see 4" to 8" of snow today into tonight. This heavy snow band will continue to shift eastward tonight and into Friday. It will also expand in coverage. So here is my updated snowfall accumulation forecast:
The 1" boundary will encompass:
Clovis, NM-Childress, TX-Chickasha, OK-Ft. Smith, AR-Hot Springs, AR-Rosedale, MS-Aberdeen, MS-Arab, AL-Chattanooga, TN-Along the South Carolina/North Carolina Border to the Coast on the northern edge. On the southern edge Savannah, GA-Tifton, GA-Tallahassee, FL-Gulf Shores, AL-Slidell, LA-Turkey Creek, LA-Waco, TX-Hobbs, NM
The 3" boundary will encompass:
Wichita Falls, TX-Wynnewood, OK-Mena, AR-Eudora, AR-Macon, MS-Tuscaloosa, AL-Pell City, AL- Centre-AL-Dalton, GA-Augusta, GA-Charleston, SC-Macon, GA-Dothan, AL-Mobile, AL-Alexandria, LA-Nacogdoches, TX-Hillsboro, TX-Eastland, TX-Wichita Falls, TX
The 6" and locally up to 10" boundary will encompass:
Posted on 10 February 2010 | 7:54 pm by Dale Bader
Models continue to show the southern track of the forecast low from the southern tip of Texas, across the central Gulf of Mexico and into Florida. The upper air data still only captured about half of the actual upper system this morning so it has not been entirely sampled yet but close. There is some what of a northern tick in this model run versus those of yesterday and I think that will be the case to some extent for the next couple of runs but in general I still think the I-20 corridor is the area under the gun with this snow. That will be from near Dallas through Shreveport to Birmingham and into Georgia.
This storm system will likely produce a wideband of 1” to 3” with a maximum band of 3” to 6”. I’ll take my edge of the 1” line from along the Red River to Greenwood, Mississippi to Athens, Georgia to Columbia, South Carolina on the north and Savannah, Georgia to Dothan, Alabama to Baton Rouge, Louisiana to Huntsville, Texas to Odessa, Texas. The heavy band (3” to 6”) will set up, 35 miles north and south of a line from Hillsboro, Texas to Jackson, Mississippi to Montgomery, Alabama to Columbus, Georgia. The width of this area may increase some in Mississippi and Alabama but I wait on that for another model run or two.
At this point, though, I do think the flakes will fall as far south as Mobile to Tallahassee but I am not anticipating it will accumulate.
Will post a brief update on this again late this evening.
An impressive winter storm is aiming for New York City/Long Island/Boston. DC will see another snowy blast, too, but the main focus is around New York City and along Long Island where 1 to 2 feet of snow is possible with very strong winds, too. DC likely to remain in the 6" to 10" band.
My focus now is looking back to the California Coast where the next storm system in the parade exists, today. This system will come ashore tonight and begin moving across the U.S. Mexico border through the Desert Southwest through Thursday. On Thursday, a surface low will develop near Brownsville, Texas. In addition, abundant moisture will be streaming northward through eastern Texas. On the northern edge, snow will develop. This will include northern Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex), southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas. The snow will shift eastward on Friday along the I-20 corridor through Louisiana, Mississippi and into Alabama. Still some questions on the exact track of the surface system but models are leaning southward. That means accumulating snow may fall as far south as Mobile-Pensacola! I am not saying that with confidence, though. The upper level energy was not well captured by upper air data since it was still off the California coast during this morning's balloon launches. It may still be off coast some during the 6 PM CT launch but will be captured some by the balloons. Wednesday morning's launch will gather the best initial data with this system and so confidence into the modeling will be higher 24 hours from now.
We had a surprise snow in the Tennessee Valley this morning. You may ask, "How is that possible to be surprised?" Well, meteorology is still not a perfect science and things don't always go as expected or forecast. I can honestly say, there is nothing that would have forecast 1"-5" of snow across about a 30-40 mile wide swath of northern Alabama in a period of just 2 to 3 hours. When I last worked, Saturday, one model showed the possibility of some very light precipitation starting by early afternoon and I thought to myself, "if that is right maybe a little snow or mix" but I never thought it would be anything of consequence, much more nearly 5" in portions of Lauderdale County. WOW! It was definitely a surprise and a lot of fun. Image Obtained Via NWS-Huntsville
Good news is that the rains have arrived and arrived in time to wash the snow away so the drive home was much easier.
The Tennessee Valley wasn't the only ones surprised. I spoke to a relative in Conway, Arkansas, earlier today and she was also surprised to wake up to snow on the ground. She was expecting just rain eventually turning to snow later in the day and then getting some accumulation. When I talked to her mid-afternoon they already had 6"! I told her she must not have read the blog. She admitted that. Looks like up to 12" is possible there. Just a tad more that I had thought yesterday when I placed Conway into the 6"-10" band.
Now the system continues eastward and where is the snow going? Well, very little change into my thought of yesterday with this storm. Still a wide swath of 6" to 10" of snow from the Eastern Iowa along and north of I-80 through northern Illinois (Yes, Chicago that includes you!) and into Ohio. In fact, from Ohio and most of southern Michigan east-southeastward through Pennsylvania back into northern Virginia, through Maryland northward into southern New England another large covering of 6" to 12" of new snow is expected. This includes DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Long Island and Boston. The bulls-eye appears as if it will be from along I-95 from DC-New York City where another 8" to 16" is likely. I think the most likely area with this storm seeing 16" or even as much as 2' or more will be across New Jersey into Long Island. Also, looks like the wind will really blow with this storm, too, making for a true blizzard set up.
We if that is not enough snow talk for you, how about snow along the I-20 corridor! That is right, I feel pretty confident that snow will be falling and accumulating within 50 miles of I-20 from Texas to Georgia, late week. There is still question on a specific track that a storm system will take but it appears certain a system is coming and it will move out of Texas and across the Gulf of Mexico. If it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico, expect snow to accumulate as far south as a line from Austin-Baton Rouge-Dothan (AL)-Waycross (GA). If it moves closer to the Gulf coast the southern edge of the accumulating snow will be along and near I-20. Now, the energy that will spin up this system is currently of the Oregon/Washington Coast. So it won't be handled very well until upper air data starts capturing it, likely Tuesday evening or early Wednesday. Right now, my confidence is on the higher side of things for snow definitely to impact northern Texas Thursday into Friday. Dallas, you may be looking at a possible 3" to 6" snow with this event; however, we are still several days out and a lot can still change. I encourage you to stay up-to-date with the very latest over the next several days if you live along and south of I-40 from the Texas Panhandle to Raleigh and southward to the Gulf Coast as you all have a chance of seeing accumulating snow with the late week system. I will take another look at this system on Tuesday and provide some further details. Check back!
Another complex situation setting up with more snow for some of you in the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic and northward tonight through Tuesday. It will be a one-two punch with a southern stream wave and an Arctic front and wave. The two will be coming together to spread abundant snow cover to much of the US along and north of I-40, again. Those of you in DC, Philly and throughout Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey are you ready for more snow! I hope so because you are going to have snow on snow and it isn't just a few additional inches, either.
Now the way it appears things are going to turn out is that the track of the main surface wave may be a tad further south than what it appeared just a few days ago. At this time, it appears the surface wave will track across Texas on Monday into south-central Louisiana by early Tuesday. It will then turn northeastward and move across northern Alabama through Tuesday morning and then into Ohio. A secondary wave will spin up off the Carolina coast and track northward late Tuesday through Wednesday.
This all sets up the expected widespread snowfall for many. I anticipate two areas of snowfall maximum with this set up. The first will set up with the surface wave moving out of Texas into Louisiana. I anticipate an area of very heavy snowfall across Arkansas, along the I-40 corridor from Waldron, AR-Conway, AR-Jonesboro, AR where 6" to 12" is possible. Little Rock is on the very bitter edge of the Rain/Snow line and could very easily fall into this band, too. Right now I think Little Rock will be in a 3" to 7" inch band of snow. Memphis is also on the bitter edge and right now I am putting them in the 2"-4" band. Just to the north for location into the southern Missouri bootheal east towards Dyersburg, TN will be in my 3" to 6". Further north up to I-7 through Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana and western Kentucky I am disagreeing with the National Weather Service. I believe amounts here will be less than their current thinking. I am only anticipating 2" to 4". Some spots may see only an inch or two. Reason for this minimum is that I think much of the moisture will be robbed to the south and southeast with the surface low.
Further north, along the Arctic front and wave another maximum is expected from the eastern Dakotas through southwest Minnesota into eastern Iowa and across northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and also through southern Wisconsin and Michigan. This area will likely see a wide swath of 6" to 10" with isolated higher amounts. A third maximum will occur from DC to New York where another 4" to 8" of snow will fall Tuesday into Wednesday.LIT 6"-10"
I continue to watch yet another storm system for later in the week that could bring snow to northern Mississippi to northern Georgia on Friday. More on that on Monday.
Get ready for a busy couple of weeks as a full return of winter is on its WAAY. If you remember in the Winter Outlook that was presented in October, I mentioned a cold winter was expected for much of the Eastern U.S. and that February would likely be the coldest. We had a period of significant chill in January with a period of a thaw but now the next two weeks is going to give early January's cold a run for its money. Cold will again make its way all the way out of the Arctic and into the eastern U.S. and as far south as the Gulf coast during this period. In addition, unlike in January, the southern jetstream is active and will bring several systems out of the Southwest and head the eastward through the southern tier of the U.S. This will likely spread snow/ice for many along and north of the I-40 corridor. May even see the chance for snow/ice making it further south all the way to the I-20 corridor, once or twice.
The first of the systems and the one that will help get the cold moving south again is a system now spinning up in the southern tip of Texas. This storm system will be tracking northeast and will move into the "Heart of Dixie" by Friday evening. Abundant rainfall will fall from southeast Louisiana through the Carolinas where a wide swath of 1" to 3" of rain is likely. Further north into the Mid-Atlantic, BIG snowfall is expected. How much? Well, if you remember just before Christmas a blizzard ravaged the Mid-Atlantic with 1 to 2 feet of snow. I expect this storm will be close to matching that storm and potentially beating it! If you live in northern Virginia, through Washington DC to the southern tip of New Jersey GET READY! This storm will also provide a large area of 8" to 12" of snowfall along I-70 through Ohio from the Indiana border and then along the I-80 corridor through Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Surround this, will be an extensive 3" to 6" snow that will stretch from central Missouri through Indiana and as far north as Long Island and as far south as the Ohio River into northwest North Carolina. In addition a wide swath of 1" to 4" snow is expected all through the Plains. Here are a few specific location forecasts:
Omaha: 3"-6"
Kansas City: 2"-4"
Des Moines: 2"-4"
Chicago: 1"-2"
St. Louis: 3" – 6"
Indianapolis: 3"-6"
Columbus, OH: 3"-6"
Pittsburgh: 5" to 8"
Philadelphia: 12"-16"
Baltimore: 16"-22"
Washington DC: 18"-24"
New York: 2"- 4"
Now this is just storm #1 for the next 7 to 10 day period. Storm #2 arrives into the Plains by Sunday evening with more SNOW. This system will merge with the next Arctic cold front that will be sliding southeast out of the Plains and through the eastern U.S., early next week, redelivering winter temperatures. This system will likely spread a wide swath of an additional 2" to 4" of snow, isolated spots up to 6" from Kansas through the Ozarks and into the Ohio Valley, Sunday evening through Tuesday. A possible storm #3 may bring snow a bit further south, I-40 corridor again? This would take place mid to late next week and it appears it would not be the last with another 2 or three to follow during the following 7 to 10 day period. It will definitely be busy and if you want snow and have not seen much yet, especially along the I-20 corridor and northward to I-40, this stretch may provide you with your chance. Stay tuned!
In my last post I commented on how the possibility existed for a near repeat performance for portions of the Southeast with more wintry precipitation late this week into the start of the weekend. Well, I am not as convinced anymore and it appears a double-barreled low will set up with one heading up from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley while another will spin up off the northeastern Florida coast and head northward. This will be in response to two pieces of energy, one in the southern jetstream and the other in the northern jet, working and phasing together. The end result will be another widespread winter storm across the U.S. In general, the southern edge of the snow with this system will be along the northern edge of the heavier snow from the one last weekend. That gives you a general idea of who may see accumulating snow this time around.
First, though, a system will spin up and move north up along the Atlantic coast tonight while a Clipper like system will move through the Great Lakes. The Clipper system will put down a wide area of 1"-3" of snow from Minnesota-Wisconsin-New York. The southern edge will make it as far south as the I-80 corridor. The system that moves up the Atlantic coast; however, will provide a swath of heavier snow, generally 2" to 4" from northwest Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania. That includes the Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia metro areas.
By Wednesday evening we will begin to see the first snow associated with the next BIG storm system. Snow will begin to develop over New Mexico and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Through the day, Wednesday, snow will spread further northward through Plains heading as far north as southern South Dakota and westward into in the central Rockies. The heaviest snow will be confined, though, from New Mexico into western Oklahoma, where a wide swath of 3" to 6" is likely by Wednesday evening. That means more snow for Amarillo and the I-40 corridor from Albuquerque to Elk City, Oklahoma.
Friday, the snow spreads east along the I-70 corridor making it as far east as Indianapolis before day's end. Much of the Plains will see 2"-5" of snow will this system Thursday into Friday. The heaviest snow will likely fall, Friday into early Saturday, along the I-70 corridor from Columbia, Missouri, through the St. Louis metro area into Indianapolis, Indiana. I am anticipating this area to see a wide swath of 4" to 8". This area of snow will be in relationship to low #1. The 2nd low of the double barrel low will be moving up the Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday. That will allow additional snow to begin breaking out across northern Virginia, Maryland and into southern Pennsylvania. As the first low moves into the Ohio Valley, it will blend its moisture field with that of the Atlantic coastal low. This will provide a wide area of 4" to 8" snow from central Missouri to the Atlantic Coast along the I-70 corridor. In fact, even higher amounts of snow will pile up over the nation's capital into southern Pennsylvania. This storm will have the potential, if the track stays as seen today, of putting down another 12"+ snow for DC and Baltimore. It would not surprise me if this storm provides the season's highest snowfall from a single storm for many along the I-70 corridor from central Missouri into Ohio. Not sure it will be able to top the pre-Christmas storm, though, for the Mid-Atlantic but it may try to give it a run.
For those of you in the South who may want snow, don't give up hope. Models are indicating that behind this storm system a shot of cold will follow. Then yet another storm is forecast to spin out of Texas and along the Gulf coast middle of next week. I will keep an eye on that one and we will see.
As was expected in the Fall and discussed during the Winter Outlook, this winter has been colder than normal with an increased chance of seeing snow/ice in the southern U.S. and especially the Tennessee Valley. Friday’s most recent bout with wintery weather is likely not the last as February is setting up to be another cold and active month.
The next few days will be rather quiet with high pressure building into the Southeast. With the fresh snow pack along the I-40 corridor and a northerly breeze flowing across it, morning temperatures will be on the cold side. A few areas, especially through southern-middle Tennessee into extreme northern Alabama will likely see some low temperatures into the teens while further south they will be in the low 20s. During the afternoon’s (Sunday/Monday) we will see quite a bit of sunshine.
An “Alberta Clipper” will help to deliver some reinforcing Arctic air to the north of the Valley, Monday through Wednesday. With the “Clipper”, a band of accumulating snow is anticipated along and north of the I-80 corridor from Nebraska to Pennsylvania. Snowfall is not expected to be extreme but there will likely be a wide swath of 2” to 4”. This will help to provide an almost continuous snow cover from just south of the Ohio River northward to Canada, nearly the entire northeastern quadrant of the U.S.! This is important because snow cover helps to aid in cold air maintaining itself as it slides south out of the Arctic region.
As the “Clipper” moves through the Valley on Tuesday morning, a few sprinkles are anticipated. Temperatures at the time will be in the 30s. Some locations may be near freezing so some patchy slick may occur. This IS NOT anticipated to be a storm of any major consequence for the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley! The “Clipper” will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning with a cold front clearing the entire Southeast, even the south tip of Florida. Some reinforcing Arctic cold will slide into the Southeast; however, it is not anticipated to be sharp shot of cold but it will allow temperatures in the mornings to fall back below freezing as far south as the Tennessee river towards the end of the week.
Attention will then turn to the Southwestern U.S. where another storm system will move ashore associated with the subtropical jetstream. This system will spread more rains and mountain snows to the western U.S. from Canada into the desert Southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. This upper level energy will begin to aid in the development of a surface storm system northeastern “Old” Mexico by Thursday morning. In its advance, a southerly flow will set up and produce a solid fetch of Gulf moisture that will encompass much of the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida by Thursday morning.
From this point forward, there are several solutions being shown by weather modeling data. I have decided to follow more closely a model known as the “European” model or ECMWF versus the American long range model, Global Forecasting System (GFS) or the Canadian model. Why? Over time I have learned to have more confidence in the ECMWF as a long range model, being consistently more accurate. In addition, it did a pretty good job with regards to the forecast several days out with the Friday weather event. So as I continue and mention location and timing of systems for late this week note it is nearly the solution being indicated by the current ECMWF. Other forecasts you will likely see the next few days will likely be based more closely on the GFS and for that reason the Storm Force 31 7-day forecast will likely be a bit different.
The surface low that is forecast to develop over “Old” Mexico is forecast to track to the northeast Thursday into Friday across the Gulf of Mexico and moving to a location south of New Orleans by Friday morning. At the same time an Arctic high pressure will be sliding east out of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. A wedge of Arctic air is likely to get caught up against the eastern face of the Appalachians from North Carolina into northern Georgia. Will the cold air remain in place over the Tennessee Valley? That will have to be watched as we get closer to the event. Because widespread rain is likely to overspread the entire Southeast by Friday morning. In fact, the northern edge of the precipitation shield may make it as far north as the Ohio River by sunrise Friday. It would appear that conditions would most likely be favorable for “Rain” as the precipitation type even as far north as the Ohio River. However, at the surface, I do believe temperatures will be at or below freezing for a period for the eastern facing Appalachians due to a scenario we call in meteorology as “Cold Air Damming”.
ECMWF forecast for Friday morning, Notice Low south of New Orleans
By Saturday morning the low is forecast to continue to track northeast and be located near Norfolk, Virginia. In addition, a second piece of upper level energy is forecast to drop southeast out of Canada and merge with the system. This track and additional energy would take abundant rainfall up along the East Coast of the U.S. with snow likely into the Ohio Valley and as far west as possibly the Mississippi Valley and as far south as the Tennessee Valley.
As a result, this will be another storm system to monitor this week. Could the Tennessee Valley and others in the Mid-South see another round of ice/snow setting up the potential for two events in just a week? Yes, possibly. Obviously, the old adage must be restated, “It is still several days out and a lot can change. The track and strength of the storm system will greatly determine where and if any wintry precipitation occurs.” Based on recent trends and indicators I have been monitoring, I do believe this is good potential solution but only time will tell us for sure.
Now, quickly, what do the other models say. Well, both the Canadian and the GFS show a Gulf system moving northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico. The operational GFS is a bit faster and further east with the system over time while its Ensemble is a bit slower, further south and then further west and is in between the operational GFS and ECMWF.
GFS Image for Friday AM, Notice Low is Over NE Florida
The operational Canadian is slower than the GFS but still a bit faster than the ECMWF. Its ensemble is a bit slower yet and also a bit further west than compared to the operational model. Still the ECMWF is the slowest and furthest west than the others. By the way, what is an ensemble? It is a composite of multiple model variations of the same model, sort-of-like an average.
Well, that is enough for now. Stay tuned through the week for the latest forecast.
Had a chance to quickly look at a couple new models lat this evening and the trend appears to be heading a bit further south with the main system and a bit colder , too. So what does this all mean? Well, during the past day or so the trend had been moving a bit further north with the low moving out of Louisiana to near the I-20 corridor in Alabama and then eastward into Georgia. That meant the likelihood that it would try to remain mainly rain from northern Mississippi into northern Alabama and Georgia during the heaviest precipitation. Now during this same time, the ECMWF (Euro) model had been a bit of an outlier with the track hugging the northern Gulf coast and indicating the potential for more frozen precip further south to near the Tennessee River.
Here are images from the NAM Model at 6 AM, Noon and 6 PM Friday. Notice that the freeze line has sunk south of the southern Tennessee border. In addition, the NAM onset precipitation in Northwest Alabama around Noon and spreads it eastward through the afternoon, likely as freezing rain.;
Now, here is the high resolution BAMS model for the Tennessee Valley, exclusive to WAAY-TV. This is the most recent run available at press time. The images are at 3, 6 and 8 PM. Notice the freezing precipitation line makes it to the Tennessee river by 3 PM and then tries to migrate northward into the evening. Also note, the very heavy snowfall being indicated by the model from the Shoals through Huntsville. This run actually has the heaviest snow from US 72 northward to about US 412 just south of Nashville.
A few things of note, this model has been quite consistent for the past several days and this is just slightly a bit further south and colder. It also increased precipitation amounts. Now my gut feeling is that US 72 may be a good demarcation line for the Tennessee Valley. I also still have my doubts that once temperatures reach freezing or below and precipitation starts that the temperature rises much more than a degree or two. When you are just at freezing a degree is HUGE. But if you are a couple below one won't make a big difference.
Unfortunately, nothing is still for sure. Heck the National Weather Service is still in doubt. Look at the differences in opinion between two neighboring NWS offices, Nashville and Huntsville. The counties in southern-middle Tennessee overseen by the Huntsville WFO are in a Winter Storm Warning while those next door and under the direction of the Nashville WFO are just under a Winter Weather Advisory.
Posted on 29 January 2010 | 12:33 am by Dale Bader
Here is an update for those of you in the Tennessee Valley. Here is the latest high-resolution model and what it is showing for the Valley. Notice the band of potential heavy snow that pushes across from west to east. This would be due to convective nature of the system. New models start to roll in around 9 PM so I will try to post another updated thought late this evening.
***Added a comment based on a look at the new BAMS 3KM Model run see below in (*)***
Confidence is on the high side that a major snow event is ready to take place from the Panhandles of Texas to Virginia. A wide swath of 6 to 12 inches will be expected with some spots may see up to 18 inches. The heaviest is expected across the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma, northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and the mountains of Virginia/North Carolina and southeastern Kentucky.
Still have questions has to how far south icing problems will be a concern. Could it make it as far south as U.S. 72 in Alabama and U. S. 278 in Mississippi? Maybe. I know that doesn't help out much but confidence on southern boundary of icing remains tough to pin down as of now. ECMWF (Euro) model is remaining the furthest south with the main surface system and in turn allows the freezing line to sink further south. The US models are both trending back further north as is the Canadian but I am not convinced which will be correct yet. My big concern is the nature of Arctic air.
The airmass sinking south through the eastern U.S. is of true Arctic nature. Cold air is denser than warm air. The colder the air the more dense it is. This air will be cold and dense, although it will modify a bit on its southern track the next day or so. I am concerned that once temperatures reach 32 or below it will be very difficult to rise much again for those of you in northern Mississippi through northern Alabama into northern Georgia. In addition, with the surface low forecast to remain along or south of I-20, and possibly as far south as the northern Gulf coast, the surface winds will be east to northeast and will only be advecting (or advancing) the Arctic air into the region and not the warmer gulf air. While a loft into the atmosphere, the warm Gulf air will glide upward over the top of the cold air at the surface. This sets up the potential for freezing rain to form. The exact location of the freezing rain versus the plain old cold rain will strongly be determined by the eventual track of the surface storm system.
In addition, could there be convection or thunderstorms embedded into the precipitation shield? The answer is yes. Already today, thunderstorms are occurring along the cold front in Texas with temperatures within a couple degrees the freezing line, in both directions. This could produce a period of thunder freezing rain or sleet. However, I believe most of the convection will become confined over time to the I-20 corridor, south of the potential freezing zone Friday into Saturday.
I am going to take another look at things later this evening and provide another update. I hope my gut feeling is stronger.
FYI, I still would not encourage travel along and within 50 miles of the I-40 corridor from New Mexico to Virginia through Saturday. New Mexico DOT & the Texas DOT have already CLOSED portions of I-40 due to snow. If you are going to brave the weather, here are some links for road information for certain states:
***For those in northern Mississippi and northern Alabama, I just looked at the most recent high resolution (3-KM) BAMS model (Baron Services) run and it has remained consistent with a burst of convective precipitation changing over to a burst of heavy snow late tomorrow afternoon. For the TN Valley it forecasts this occurrence between about 5 and 7 pm. It is again just one of many possible solutions but it is the highest model run available for the TN Valley and it has remained consistent for the past several days with this type of solution. If it would be correct, tomorrow's evening rush may be a bit tricking. For those in the Valley, tune into tonight to WAAY 31 for the very latest forecast and depiction of this model.***
Posted on 27 January 2010 | 11:35 pm by Dale Bader
This is a very complicated and difficult winter storm forecast for the Tennessee Valley and a lot can still change. Confidence is definitely increasing for a major winter storm for much of the I-40 corridor from New Mexico-Amarillo-Oklahoma City-Little Rock-Memphis-Nashville Thursday through Friday. If you are planning travel in these locations please be aware of the potential travel hazards that could greet you.
For the Tenneessee Valley, we remain on the edge and portions of the Valley may see a significant storm, still. But exact location and timing is still a bit up in the air. An explanation of why questions still remain and examples of some of the different solutions being shown by meteorological modeling is shown in today’s video post.
It is looking ever more likely that a major winter storm pact with snow and ice is going to take place along the I-40 corridor from New Mexico to Tennessee, through Friday. There are still some questions are exact specifics as the models appear to be trending a bit faster with the Arctic cold front sinking southward and a bit further southward trend in the main surface low. This could potentially shift things a bit and change precipitation type, too. Either way, if you live within 50 miles of I-40, I recommend you stay weather aware and prepared for possible significant icing/snow accumulation. You can learn more with today's video briefing below.
A potential major winter storm with snow and ice is eying portions of the southern U.S. later this week. Question is exactly where. To help give you an idea of at least where the potential lies and the reason questions linger, I have provide a video blog post. Enjoy!
Busy weather week coming up, just like the way things have been here since the holidays. Glad things are slowing down a bit so I can provide you with the latest updates again. Well, I don't need to tell many of you just how cold it has been since the first of the year as you, like I, have been experiencing it. But really, just how cold has it been? Since the 1st of January, more than 2,900 winter related records have been tied or broken.
Daily Record
Tied Record
Broken Record
Low Temperature
220
567
Low High Temperature
291
875
Snowfall
103
854
*Data Through January 11
In addition it isn't just how cold it has been recently but how cold it has been since the meteorological winter has started on December 1, 2009. Here is an image showing that an expansive below normal start to this winter has occurred from the Southeast to the northern Rockies.
(Note the Temperatures are in Celcius so the lighter blue shading is about -4F and the darker blue is about -8F)
Now it is time for much of the nation along and east of the Rockies to enjoy a warm-up and a thaw. The temperatures, though, will not be extreme and will generally just rise to or just a little above normal through the next one to two weeks. At the same time the southern jet stream will become active with a vigorous storm system that will develop over northern Mexico, Thursday. It will then track off to the ENE and makes it into northern Florida by Saturday. The northeastward progression will continue through Sunday taking the storm center up along the Atlantic coast to near Norfolk, VA. A more ENE track then is expected early next week taking the main storm into the Atlantic. At this time, it appears most of the precipitation associated with this system will be in the form of "Rain". However, some valleys of the Appalachians may see a little sleet or freezing rain at the onset and further north into the mountains of Pennsylvania into south-central New York some snow will fall.
The next major area of focus will be towards California. So far, being an El Nino year has not brought the usual heavy rains to California. That is about to change. Several storms will move into the Pacific coast next week and they will bring abundant rains to much of the West including California.
Now, looking out into the long range, I strongly feel that even though we will be thawing out the next few weeks winter is going to come back and likely come back with vengeance. One of the years I have leaned on as reference for this winter has been 1958 and it is continues to look like a strong comparison year. Just to give you a heads up, here is how February 1958 ended up.
Also remember, I had February as my coldest month for this winter in the previous winter outlook and that is saying something compared to the start of this winter we have already seen.
Posted on 22 December 2009 | 8:15 pm by Dale Bader
Last night, the models were all in pretty good agreement with taking this storm system from north-central Texas up through western Missouri and then into Minnesota which lead me in the direction of providing you the information in the latest post. Things may be on the change again. Not a huge surprise to me, though. As I had previously mentioned until the storm system really moves into the U.S. the upper air data would not be that great and that would influence the model outputs.
This morning's model runs are all further east with the track of the storm system and tend to take the low from Texas to Arkansas into Missouri and then northward. They do have different solutions as to exactly the track they show. The American models are similar and are hinting now that the storm may track almost due north along the Mississippi river to eastern Iowa. Similar solution shown by the long range models about 4 to 5 days ago. This would shift some of the heaviest snow further east from eastern Kansas northward through eastern Nebraska/South Dakota and northwest Missouri, western Iowa and into western Minnesota.
My gut feeling on this storm system is that it will be ejecting from the southwestern U.S. in two pieces. The first to likely shear more north and west from Texas to western Missouri while a second will eject out and spin up a secondary surface wave in eastern Texas/Louisiana and track then north-northeastward. In addition, a surface low may also spin up off the Carolina Coast and move northward into the Mid-Atlantic as the Texas low drags a cold front south and east and cyclogenesis spins up a new low. Looks like it will likely be too warm for snow, though, with this system for the East.
I will take another look at things late this evening and provide any new ideas at that time.
Posted on 22 December 2009 | 3:50 am by Dale Bader
It is appearing more likely that the heaviest snow, in excess of 6" and as much as 2 feet, will be falling Wednesday through Christmas Day from the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma to Wisconsin. Some cities that will be affected includes: Denver, Dodge City, Lincoln, Sioux Falls, Minneapolis and Duluth. The most extreme snow in excess of 18" will likely fall across much of southern Minnesota-northwest Iowa-Eastern South Dakota. Bit further south freezing rain will be an issue from southeast Nebraska through central Iowa to northwest Illinois. Please make sure to use extra caution and plan accordingly if you are planning on traveling into these locations Wednesday-Christmas Day.
Continuing further south some heavy rains with embedded thunderstorms will be likely. The heaviest rainfall is likely to fall from Texarkana, TX-Conway, AR-Poplar Bluff, MO-Sparta, IL. In this band as much as 4"-6" of rain is possible. In addition, much of the remainder of Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, western Kentucky, western Tennessee and Mississippi will see between 1"-3" of rainfall from Wednesday through Christmas Day. It is possible, a few severe thunderstorms may occur across Louisiana, Arkansas, eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma Wednesday into Christmas Eve.
Note: This storm system is still organizing and is just now into the Pacific NW so the track of the storm system may still change; however, models are showing more run-to-run consistency and the general track is likely to be close to that mentioned above.
Posted on 20 December 2009 | 11:23 pm by Dale Bader
How Will It Impact Your Travel?
Still watching the likely development of a BIG winter storm from the Southwestern US to the Heartland but details are still sketchy. To explain why I say this, I chose to provide you with another video blog post. I hope it helps clear some fuzziness up. Hopefully, we will begin to hammer details down with more confidence beginning Monday afternoon/evening so make sure you stay up-to-date for the very latest by keeping it tuned right here!
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The same complex of storms later spun up the additional tornados in White and in Cleburne Counties. The tornado that touched down in White County did so near the community of Center Hill around 8:30 PM. The National Weather Service reports that at least nine houses were damaged and one injury occurred. The third tornado occurred shortly after 9 PM in Cleburne County near the community of Pearson. Several homes were badly damaged and at least 3 severe injuries were reported by the National Weather Service. The county sheriff has released additional information confirming that there was one fatality associated with the tornado. 
