As is customary for me, I try to provide an initial winter weather outlook around the first of September, just as we begin to think Fall. Why? It comes from my work experience in the private weather industry where critical planning for the upcoming winter takes place during September and October and that is when the winter outlook is so important. This includes the utility industry with regards to their planning on the amount of natural gas and heating oil will be required to heat our homes to local municipalities, state departments of transportation and the local snow plow operator and the amount of salt and anti-icing material may be required to keep our roadways clear of snow and ice and safe to commute on. This outlook is intended to assist everyone with these winter planning needs; however, it is a bit more generic. If you require a more specific winter forecast please feel free to contact me. I would be more than happy to accommodate you. Please note, depending on the request it may require additional resources that may require me to charge a minimal fee. But since this is one of my favorite things to do each year I will do my best to minimize any charges.
As is the case with the forecast for Autumn 2010, La Nina and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation will be the major dominating factors this winter. This will lead to above normal temperatures from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains/ Upper Midwest southeast and eastward. This includes the Great Lakes, Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and New England. The warmest temperatures, compared to normal, are likely to occur across the northern tier of the nation, especially in the Northern Rockies, Upper Midwest and New England.
Snowfall is likely to be near to a bit above normal along and north of the I-70 corridor. A bit more specific snowfall forecast will be released later.
Now, similar to the Fall Forecast, the Climate Prediction Center forecast for December, January, and February doesn't match up with my forecast. Instead, their prediction is for above normal conditions along the southern tier of the U.S. from southern California to the Southeast with the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Upper Plains below normal.
Last year at this time when I was putting together the fall and preliminary winter outlooks I was seeing an El Nino amidst a cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) facing me. That helped to lead to a very chilly winter for much of the eastern U.S. and especially the Southeast. This year the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction and that means a La Nina amidst a cold PDO. So can we expect opposite conditions for this fall/winter? It is appearing so even though the U.S. long range seasonal forecast model (CFS) is predicting otherwise.
The latest run of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal forecast is indicating a cool Fall across much of the eastern U.S. with the coolest being centered over the Mississippi Valley.
This is an interesting forecast that is going against the analog years I have reviewed. I have looked at similar year’s in which we have swung from an El Nino to a La Nina during the summer months and a cold PDO was present. This has provided me with the following years: 1998, 1987, 1973 and 1963. These analog years taken just by themselves and composited provide the following:
Notice the marked difference in the image versus the CFS forecast. The composite would indicate temperatures running above to much above normal for the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valleys, the Plains and into the Rockies. In addition, warmer than normal conditions would also be likely to persist to the Atlantic Coast. It does hint at some cooler than normal conditions being possible in California. I actually think the cooler than normal conditions make extend a bit further north all along the Pacific Coast. Overall, this image fits pretty well into my thinking for this fall. So if you were hoping for the cool, refreshing feel of the season you may be saddened. One of the most wonderful features of the season is the art show Mother Nature provides through the changing of colors the leaves and foliage. Can we expect a colorful season or somewhat more of a blah one? Unfortunately it is not looking real promising from the Tennessee Valley through the Smokies and along the eastern seaboard. . Not only has it been quite hot this summer but it has also been dry for these locations. Through June/July, some locations in these areas were more than 3” below normal.
The combination of heat and dryness has already begun to create some strain on trees in the Tennessee Valley and some leaves are already changing to browns and yellows and falling. The forecast for precipitation over the next 30 to 45 days, which will lead into the traditional change over season, will be at best, near normal; however, I anticipate much of the area remaining dry, especially for the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic. Best fall color this year will likely be across the Rockies and through the Great Lakes where average to above average precipitation has occurred. The peak of color may be a bit slower to arrive, though, due to the predicted above normal temperatures. I would anticipate about 1 to 2 weeks later than the normal depicted in the map below. Here are some specifics for a few key locations for this fall season:
SEPTEMBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure Chicago, IL_66.4_+2.6_NA_NA St. Louis, MO_71.4_+1.2_NA_NA Cincinnati, OH_70.8_+2.3_NA_NA Minneapolis, MN_62.9_+1.3_NA_NA Washington DC_72.9_+2.4_NA_NA New York, NY_68.6_+1.1_NA_NA Boston, MA_64.9_+0.2_NA_NA Denver, CO_64.3_+1.9_NA_NA
OCTOBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure Chicago, IL_58.1_+6.0_NA_NA St. Louis, MO_59.6_+0.9_NA_NA Cincinnati, OH_55.9_-0.6_NA_NA Minneapolis, MN_50.7_+1.1_0.3”_-0.3” Washington DC_59.9_+1.1_NA_NA New York, NY_58.1_+1.5_NA_NA Boston, MA_55.7_+1.6_NA_NA Denver, CO_52.5_+1.5_0.9”_-3.2”
NOVEMBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure Chicago, IL_42.8_+3.5_0.9”_-0.9” St. Louis, MO_47.6_+2.2_0.4”_-1.4” Cincinnati, OH_47.0_+1.5_1.2”_-0.8" Minneapolis, MN_35.6_+2.5_3.0”_-7.0” Washington DC_49.9_+1.2_2.4”_+1.7” New York, NY_48.0_+0.9_1.9”_+1.5” Boston, MA_45.1_+0.2_2.2”_+0.9” Denver, CO_39.8_+2.3_7.9”_-2.8”
Now, I know it is still August but it is never to0 soon to begin to look past the heat of summer to the wonderful chill of winter (now you know my favorite season). I have done just that and am ready to release my preliminary winter 2010 forecast. I will do this by September 1, 2010 so make sure to check back!
I have started digging into the Fall 2010 and even Winter 2010 outlooks and in the process have seen some changes in the way the tropics are looking. In addition, a few new reference years are being utilized for this forecast; of them, only 1998 was used in the previous forecast. The other years include 1987 and 1973. For this reason, I am revising this year’s tropical forecast to REDUCE the number of expected named storms from 14 to 10. I am also reducing the number of expected hurricanes from 9 to 7 with only two of these forecast to reach “Major” status, category 3 or higher. Storms making a U.S. landfall stayed unchanged at 3.
The remnants of once Tropical Depression 5 have made their way back over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The center of circulation was located south of the Pensacola, Florida, Monday afternoon, and was drifting west.
As of 2:30 PM CT, the eastern side of the low had minimal cloud cover with the western side seeing quite a bit of convection. Enhanced convective development had eased through much of
the morning hours but during the last hour or so has begun once again. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft were flying the storm and had located several locations on the relatively convective free eastern side with winds of 20 to 25 mph. As of this post, they had not flown on the convectively filled western side.
I already believe the system is again a tropical depression and I would expect the NationalHurricaneCenter to officially classify it as such by this evening. The disturbed weather will continue to find itself in a favorable environment this evening and into Tuesday as it continues to drift to the west and then northwest. This should allow the system to further develop and
organize and I anticipate it will reach close to Tropical Storm strength, becoming Danielle if it does, before making landfall Tuesday evening in southeast Louisiana. The Storm Force 31
computer forecast, BAMS, continues to indicate that Tropical Storm Danielle remains a strong
potential. It forecasts the winds of the system to reach Tropical Storm strength, minimum of 39 mph, by late tonight.
By midday Tuesday, it forecasts the system to be at its peak just prior to making landfall and continuing on a track to the northwest. This track would take the center of the system near to New Orleans.
The BAMS, is outside the consensus of most of the models by developing the system into a well organized tropical storm. The majority of the computer forecasts are forecasting a depression with near tropical storm strength or at worst a minimal tropical storm.
Either way, the energy of the system appears it will track into southeast Louisiana on Tuesday and then begin to make a turn to the north through the middle of the week. It will eventually drift towards the northeast through northern Mississippi and the TennesseeValley this weekend meaning another unsettled weekend is likely.
The remnants of what was earlier last week TD 5 are drifting back towards the Gulf of Mexico. Sunday, the low pressure circulation will move out of southeast Alabama and cross through the panhandle of Florida. By early Monday, it will once again be over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It will also begin to find itself back in a favorable environment for development into a tropical system. I anticipate by Monday afternoon, it will again be classified as a tropical depression. Depending on its precise track, it could strengthen into a tropical storm on Tuesday. This strongly depends on a more southerly track, one that keeps it over the warm waters and further away from the coast where it would encounter some frictional shear.
Guidance on Saturday had been trending a bit further north, regarding its track, versus Friday's runs; however, the first look at the Sunday guidance is back just south of the Coast. One model that has been consistent over the past 48 hours is the Storm Force 31 BAMS model. It continues to track the low south of the Coast from near Destin west to northeast Texas by Wednesday.
On Friday, it was forecasting the system to intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday and Saturday evening's late run continued this trend. Additionally, it was forecasting the system to strengthen into a strong category 1 to a lower end category two hurricane by midday Wednesday.
I am not sure if it will have enough time and enough going for it to completely strengthen that much but I would not be surprised to see it become Tropical Storm Danielle.
The remnant low of what was once tropical depression 5 was meandering through southern Mississippi Friday evening. It has sent a spoke of energy across the Tennessee Valley and that help to spawn afternoon showers and thunderstorms with tropical downpours. On Saturday, it will drift to near Montgomery, Alabama and that will bring it into close proximity to the Valley to once again deliver more widespread scattered convection, especially for the southeastern half of the region from Hamilton-Decatur-Huntsville-Winchester southeastward. Locations in this zone will see afternoon rain chances in the “likely” category with precipitation chances at or above 50%.
While northwest of this line rain chances will be less and more scattered. In fact, some in northwest Alabama and Wayne and Lawrence County in Tennessee may not see any rain at all. For this reason, afternoon high temperatures will very by as much as 10 degrees from Ft. Payne to the Shoals, Saturday.
The remnant low will drift into southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia on Sunday and that will take the best rain chances to the east and south of the Valley; however, widely scattered activity is still likely for Marshall, Jackon and DeKalb Counties. The heat will again begin spreading east and by Monday as the low drifts into northwest Florida/northeast Gulf of Mexico, highs will again reach into the upper 90s and possibly top near 100 degrees again. It will also be quite humid meaning Monday will be just plain “HUMISERABLE” and heat index values will likely climb to near 110 degrees again.
As the low drifts back over the warm Gulf of Mexico, it will find itself back in an environment favorable for redevelopment and strengthening. The low may once again become a depression by Monday and strengthen even further into a potentially named tropical system by reaching tropical storm strength by early Tuesday. The low will likely drift westward as a light easterly flow around and upper level high pressure system drives its motion. By Tuesday, it will likely be tracking near the Louisianna Gulf Coast and may continue to strengthen. The Storm Force 31 in-house computer forecast model (BAMS) is indicating the possible strengthening of the low to a HURRICANE by midday Tuesday.
The system will then likely drift towards the northeastern/eastern Texas coast by Wednesday into Thursday. If you have plans along the Gulf Coast this weak it is advised that you remain weather aware regarding this system.
Latest observations from buoys, satellite and reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Five has faded and no longer is a depression.
Officially, the latest information concerning the depression, as of 4pm CT:
Location: 28.3 N 87.6 W or about 170 miles south of Mobile, Alabama Maximum Winds: 30 MPH Movement: NW at 12 MPH Pressure: 29.80”
The tropical storm warnings that were in effect for the Gulf Coast have been lifted and are no longer in effect.
The remnants of the depression will continue to lift off to the northwest through the remainder of this evening and tonight and will move onshore near Bay St. Louis during the morning hours on Thursday and continue to slowly drift north through Mississippi into Friday before turning more northeasterly through the weekend.
This track will allow deep, gulf moisture to lift northward into Alabama and this will lead to an increase in scattered showers and storms this weekend. Where the rains fall, some cooling relief from the heat will be felt. Where they don’t, it will be just “humiserably” hot.
Track Dependent; Relief May Be Delivered to the Valley
As of 10 AM CT, Wednesday, tropical depression five had a large circulation pattern but remained overall disorganized over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and storms are occurring from the Louisiana coast to southwest Florida.
The center of the depression was located at 27.8N, 86.8W or about 190 miles south of Pensacola, Florida. Minimum central pressure was 29.77” and the maximum sustained winds were 30 MPH.
Due to the broad nature of the circulation, exact track of the system is tough to discern; however, it appears to generally be drifting northwest at about 12 MPH.
Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect from Destin, Florida to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm force winds are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
As TD 5 continues to drift to the northwest through Thursday, it will encounter a more favorable atmospheric wind pattern. This will aid in allowing the system to better organize. However, the broad circulation will act as an inhibiting factor and as a result it is likely the system will be slow to strengthen and may actually struggle to ever reach tropical storm strength.
This is also being indicated by multiple computer guidance forecasts. Several of these actually forecast the depression to remain a depression through the next five days while a few others intensify it to minimal tropical storm force strength. Only a couple of the forecasts predict the system to intensify to near hurricane strength and/or indicate rapid strengthening. The Storm Force 31 forecast model also forecasts slow strengthening and maintains the depression as a depression through its life cycle.
Regarding the track of the system, a likely continuation of a northwestward drift is expected. This will likely allow the system to move onshore along the Mississippi coast Thursday morning. This is supported by the majority of the computer forecasts and the official National Hurricane Center Forecast. The Storm Force 31 model is a bit east and south of the center of the official track; drifting the center of the system towards Montgomery, Alabama by midday Sunday.
The official track would be a favorable one for the Tennessee Valley in that it would help bring some potential relief from the heat. This would be due to the increased coverage area of likely showers and t-storms. This too, would be beneficial for the Valley as the portions of the Valley are experiencing abnormally dry conditions.
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. (AP) - A lightning strike in Yellowstone National Park injured nine people waiting to see Old Faithful geyser erupt. One man was hospitalized while the others suffered minor injuries. Yellowstone spokesman Al Nash says the lightning struck about 4 p.m. Tuesday.
He says a 57-year-old man, whose name was not released, was taken to Eastern Idaho Regional Medical Center in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Nash says his condition was not available but some bystanders performed CPR on him before rangers arrived. Seven others complaining of shortness of breath, tingling or numbness were treated and released from Old Faithful Clinic, while a ninth person struck did not seek medical attention. Hundreds of visitors were in the area at the time.
This is a great reminder on the dangers of lightning. An estimated 25 million lightning strikes occur in the U.S. each year. On average, 58 people per year are killed as a result of lightning and is the second largest killer of weather phenomenon.
To stay safe, first, stay weather aware and watch for developing thunderstorms. During the summer, thunderstorms can develop quickly with little or no warning. If the sky begins looking dark and unsettled head indoors. Also, remember that lightning can strike as far as 10 miles from where it is raining. So if you hear thunder, take cover.
A storm system now in the center of the nation will drift into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday taking with it some substantial rainfall. Areas in the heart of the nation saw heavy rainfall on Wednesday, in order of 2" to 5". This occurred over already saturated lands and will only enhance the ongoing flooding. Several locations along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers and their tributaries are now reporting moderate flooding. A few of these include:
Mississippi River
Hannibal, MO
Grafton, IL
Chester, IL
Cape Girardeau, MO
Thebes, MO
Missouri River
Herman, MO
Illinois River
Beardstown, IL
Havana, IL
Friday, the emphasis of the rain shifts eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Some areas may see as much as 2" to 4" of rain, especially across Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio.
For the weekend, quickly behind this storm system, an upper level ridge will be building from Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday. This will allow the mercury to quickly rise into the upper 80s and low 90s for much of the weekend from the eastern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the same an upper level wave over the Bahamas will sit nearly stationary.
For next week, this feature will slowly drift westward and will help to temper temps across the southeast while it will remain hot and humid through the center of the nation and even poking into portions of northeast. As the upper wave nears the southeastern Coast, the chances for afternoon scattered showers/tstorms will increase. The feature will finally make its way into the Southeast by late next week.
Many of us saw an unsettled weekend with severe storms and periods of heavy rain. Now, a brief quiet spell is taking shape for today from the Upper Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. While It remains cloudy and cool with scattered showers from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The quiet spell in the center of the nation will be short-lived as another storm system begins to organize over the Rockies, today. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely in association to this storm system from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. At the time of this writing, a tornado watch has just been issued for most of eastern Colorado until 10 PM CT.
On Wednesday, the storm system moves into Kansas and sets up a likely severe weather outbreak for much of the southern Plains. The highest risk of severe storms will set up along I-40 in Oklahoma and southward to the Red River. The storm prediction center has already issued a MODERATE RISK for this region and I would not be surprised to see a HIGH RISK issued Wednesday morning. The main threat of severe weather will be large hail; however, along and near the I-35 corridor in southern Oklahoma, shear will be sufficient enough to increase the threat to tornadoes. Unfortunately, this does include the Oklahoma City metro area where several significant tornadoes just recently impacted the region.
The storm will progress into Missouri on Thursday. Moderate to heavy rains are likely along the Missouri river from southeastern Nebraska to St. Louis where 1" to 3" of rain is possible. This will only add to the flooding that is taking place along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries in Missouri and Illinois. In addition to the heavy rains across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a new severe storm threat will exist across the lower Mississippi Valley; however the chances will be significantly less than Tuesday or Wednesday.
As the system continues to progress eastward on Thursday, the unsettledness and rains will move into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and Ohio Valley. Some isolated severe storms are possible but the main threat will be some potential heavy rains and flash flooding. Temperatures in advance and under this system will be generally below normal; however, once it passes by, it will heat up quite quickly. Temperatures will warm into the 80s and 90s for much of the center of the nation and the southern 1/3.
With Mother Nature’s Cooperation, Shuttle Atlantis Will Be Visible
With the final launch of space shuttle Atlantis on Friday, comes a last opportunity for residents across the nation to view its passing in the celestial sky. STS-132 is the final mission for shuttle Atlantis. It is scheduled to be a 12-day mission that will take Atlantis to the International Space Station to deliver and install the Russian built Mini Research Module-1, known as Rassvet, meaning “Dawn” in Russian. This new piece to the ISS will provide for a new docking port for Soyuz and Progress spacecraft, a new radiator, a new airlock and a European robotic arm.
As Atlantis chases the ISS Friday and Saturday, residents will have the opportunity of not only seeing the ISS fly overhead but also the shuttle!. The only caveat is whether or not clouds will obscure the view and unfortunately, for some, that is likely as afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast. If the sky remains clear, here are the opportunities to view Atlantis chasing the ISS and catching up with it this weekend.
City
Time
Duration (Min)
Approach
Departure
Boston
8:20 PM
<1
34o Above ESE
18o Above ESE
Baltimore
9:50 PM
<1
16o Above W
18o Above WSW
Louisville
9:49 PM
1
36o Above NW
35o Above ESE
Nashville
8:49 PM
2
18o Above NNW
28o Above ENE
Huntsville
8:49 PM
1
17o Above N
23o Above ENE
Memphis
8:49 PM
1
15o Above N
16o Above ENE
Chicago
8:48 PM
2
35o Above WNW
17o Above SE
St. Louis
8:48 PM
2
23o Above NNW
15o Above ESE
Viewing of Shuttle Atlantis Saturday
Day
Time
Duration (Min)
Approach
Departure
Boston
8:26 PM
3
36o Above W
15o Above SE
New York
8:28 PM
<1
26o Above SE
17o Above SE
Orlando
10:01 PM
<1
21o Above NW
16o Above SE
Louisville
9:59 PM
2
26o Above W
24o Above S
Nashville
8:59 PM
2
31o Above WNW
31o Above SSE
Huntsville
8:59 PM
2
32o Above NW
42o Above SE
Memphis
8:59 PM
3
33o Above NW
25o Above ESE
Chicago
8:58 PM
3
20o Above W
16o Above S
St. Louis
8:58 PM
3
39o Above WNW
16o Above SE
Little Rock
8:58 PM
3
24o Above NNW
18o Above ESE
Dallas
8:58 PM
3
16o Above N
15o Above E
Houston
8:59 PM
2
15o Above NNE
16o Above ENE
Viewing of Shuttle Atlantis Sunday
For more cities that will have the chance of seeing the shuttle fly by you can click here.
While It Remains Active from Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley
The weather pattern is setting up to turn warm and humid for much of the Southeastern U.S. for this week as a ridge builds and sets in. On the fringe of the ridge from Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley, though, it will remain active with several rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Even severe weather will be likely.
Severe weather was already a major concern for much of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kanasas, this afternoon, with several reports of tornadoes. The risk for severe weather will remain but lessen on Tuesday for Oklahoma and Kansas. In addition, an area of "Slight Risk" will exist across much of the Ohio Valley. Very little change is expected for Wednesday, too.
In addition, due to the likelihood of training of storms over the same areas, heavy rainfall with flooding is possible from northern Oklahoma, through much of eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri and into Iowa and Wisconsin.
I have very little change in my thoughts from last evening with regards to severe weather the next few days. May be a bit less of a threat than I first thought for this afternoon/evening across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest; however, severe storms are still expected to develop, especially from northeast Kansas into western Iowa. The main threat with these storms will be damaging hail and wind gusts with a few isolated tornadoes.
Friday's and Saturday's forecasts look nearly identical to my previous thought so no real changes there. One bit of good news, though, is for those of you in the Tennessee Valley, looks like the main threat of storms holds out until later in the evening Saturday into Sunday. Hopefully, this will hold true and you will have the chance to get in those Saturday outdoor plans.
Cold front will slowly move eastward through the heart of the nation through the end of this week and weekend. In its advance warm and moister air will exist and it will mix, along the front, with cooler air. This will help to trigger thunderstorms and some of these will be strong and severe in nature. For your Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a large area of SLIGHT RISK across much of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into Kansas. Strong instability and vertical wind shear will lend to the development of some supercell storms with tornadic potential, especially from northeast Kansas into southwest Minnesota. I would not be surprised if a moderate risk of severe weather is outlined by SPC in the morning for Thursday.
By Friday, the severe threat shifts eastward to the Mississippi River from Minneapolis southward to New Orleans. The SPC has encompassed the region surrounding the Mississippi River with a SLIGHT RISK. Similar to Thursday, significant parameters such as low level moisture, instability and shear will exist to set up the potential for tornadoes, especially along the Lower Mississippi Valley. I also anticipate a moderate risk being issued for much of Louisiana, Arkansas and southern Missouri for Friday.
Saturday, the severe weather emphasis will move further east, into the Ohio Valley/Mid South. It will also stretch southwestward back into eastern Texas. Current computer modeling indicates the threat of a significant severe weather event across east Texas into Louisiana with the threat for large hail and tornadoes. I will take another look at this with Thursday's post.
It is quite cool for many in the eastern half of the U.S. Highs today, will be averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and up into New England. The cool pocket will remain over the East on Wednesday but the coolest air will be confined into New England. The further west you go, the warmer it will already be turning. In fact, across the Plains, it will not be below normal but rising 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This warmth will be setting its eyes eastward and it will make it there in just a couple of days.
On Thursday, below normal coolness with be confined to the Atlantic Coast and New England while above normal warmth will already make it as far east as the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The opposite end of the spectrum will be occurring, though, in the West. Temperatures across much of region will be 10 to 25 degrees below normal. With a sharp gradient in warmth and coolness you can almost always guarantee a major weather situation is brewing. That will likely be the case across the Plains. I anticipate we will be dealing with a widespread severe weather situation, Thursday, from Nebraska to the Red River. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a SLIGHT RISK from Iowa into northern Texas for 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday. If all comes together as several of the forecast models indicate, I would anticipate the risk being increased to MODERATE for much of this area, especially along and south of I-70 through Kansas to Kansas City and southward to the I-40 corridor in Oklahoma. One of the computer forecasts predicts a Tornado Index nearing 10 (scale 0-10) across Kansas and Oklahoma!
By Friday, the warmth moves to the Atlantic Coast with well above normal warmth making its way into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic. The severe weather threat will also moves eastward from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to the Gulf Coast. Again, there will be abundant shear in the atmosphere so storms will have the potential of large hail and of becoming tornadic. The severe weather threat will then shift into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and continue southwestward through much of Mississippi. I will be able to fine tune this as we begin to get closer to the event.
I know I have said this time and time again so if you are a frequent reader I apologize for repeating but I can not stress enough my recommendation for you to sign up for WAAY 31's Weather Call. This is simply the most advanced warning notification system available and it only costs $6.95 per year. It works anywhere in the U.S. so even though WAAY 31 is in Huntsville, AL the service is good where you live. Please click the link and learn more about this life-saving technology. You can also sign-up from the same link.
This past Saturday was very busy across much of the nation with regards to severe weather. Sixty-nine reports of tornadoes were reported with several being of long-tracked, long-lived, violent tornadoes. One of which occurred in Yazoo City, MS where the National Weather Service estimated the strength of the tornado at EF-4 with winds of 170 mph and a destruction path at times 1.75 miles wide. The entire path of detrusction with this particular tornado occurred for approximately 97 miles.
Across northern Alabama, at least four tornadoes touched down across Cullman, Marshall and DeKalb counties. One across Cullman County, the remnants of the Yazoo City storm, was rated as EF-2 with 115 mph winds.
A second storm system spawned two separate EF-3 tornadoes that stretched across Marshall and DeKalb Counties. The first impacted the communities of Albertville and Geraldine.
The second EF-3 touched down near the community of Mentone
Yet a third EF-3 tornado touched down near the community of Mt. Vernon about an hour later. This was quite rare as the occurrence of EF-3 rated tornadoes is only about 3% of ALL tornadoes.
During this severe weather event, a tool the is exclusive to the WAAY 31 in the Tennessee Valley and is also used by other stations across the country, the Baron Tornado Index (BTI), provided Brad Huffines and myself with valueable information regarding the tornadic potential of each individual thunderstorm. This allowed us to be able to enhance awareness to storms that could become potentially tornadic prior to even a tornado warning being issued or clear circulation being noticed by radar or ground observations. Two particular occurrences took place with regard to the EF-3 tornadoes that impact the counties of Marshall and DeKalb.
Prior to the 10 PM newscast, we had been tracking a storm with history of producing a tornado across Blount county. As the newscast began, we lead the show with this storm and provided a storm track that indicated the storm would reach the community of Hyatt around 10:11 PM. Then at 10:09 PM, we lead the news, after the break, with an update on the storm. The BTI had spiked to 5.5 from dwindling down into the 3s and as we spoke new imagery indicating BTI values had climbed into at least the 8 range. There was still no tornado warning in effect; however, we notified our viewers of the potential for strong winds and even tornadic winds with this storm. Finally, a storm track was provided and it indicated the storm would arrive into Albertville around 10:24 PM. At 10:15 PM a report of a possible tornado arrived from Hyatt and then another arrived at 10:24 PM from Albertville. The BTI helped us provide viewers with potentially life-saving awareness of an impending dangerous storm.
We continued to track the BTI through out the life of this storm and it did pulse down for awhile falling into the 4's before pulsing back up into the 7's as it approached northern DeKalb county and Mentone.
Lastly, as we continued to track the storm move from Albertville through Geraldine to Mentone we also began to pay close attention to a storm further southwest moving towards southern Marshall and DeKalb counties. This was due to, again the history of producing tornadoes, and the increasing BTI. The BTI had risen with this storm, similarly to the one above, from the 3s to the 5s and then into 7s as it moved into DeKalb County. The first rise into the 5s occurred a hour prior to the storms arrival. Again providing advance warning that may have saved lives.
If you would like to learn more about the tracks and intensities of these storms simply go to http://www.stormforce31.com/
As anticipated, the weather is starting to turn towards the active side this afternoon. The first severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued in Colorado and in Kansas with more expected as we continue through the afternoon and evening. A tornado watch has also been issued until 9 PM for eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
Also, the afternoon day 2 convective outlook for 7 AM Friday through 7 AM Saturday has been issued by the Storm Prediction center and as discussed as likelihood in the previous post, a moderate risk has been highlighted. It is a bit further south than I had anticipated earlier this morning and encompasses southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
Make sure to stay weather aware the next few days. I will also be posting frequent updates on my twitter site @dopplerdalewx and occasionally on the Doppler Dale Facebook Page. I welcome you to follow the updates.
A vigorous Spring storm system is spinning out of the southwestern U.S. and is it moves into the southern Plains, today, it will begin to mix warm/moist air with colder air setting up the potential for thunderstorms and widespread rainfall. The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk for severe storms for Thursday into Friday morning for most of Oklahoma, Kansas, western Texas and eastern Colorado. The main threat with these storms will be large hail but there is a chance for tornadoes, too, especially across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.
In addition to the area of strong to severe thunderstorms, the warm, humid air moving northward into cooler air will allow for a band of rainfall to develop and move northward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley into Iowa and the Ohio Valley, today and tonight. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with this rainfall but these storms will likely remain below severe limits. Some substantial rainfall is likely along the Missouri river from South Dakota into Missouri where 1" to 2" of rain is possible by sunrise Friday.
On Friday, a very warm and humid atmosphere will set up over much of the southeastern U.S. This is just the primer for storms into Saturday. The corridor of storms for Friday will set up from east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. As of Thursday morning, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area of Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday which encompasses much of the center of the nation. By tonight or at least Friday morning, I would not be surprised to see the new convective outlook to have a moderate risk area outlined, especially over much of Missouri and Arkansas as dynamics of the system are forecast to be quite strong and conditions will be favorable for severe storm development. This will be dependent, though, are where the remnants of today's storms exist Friday morning. This includes the remnant rain cooled air, and cloud cover. There will be the continued potential with these storms, on Friday, for large hail and isolated tornadoes.
By Saturday, the severe storm threat pushes further eastward into the southern Ohio Valley southward through the Tennessee Valley and to the Gulf Coast. Again, a current large area of slight risk is indicated by the Storm Prediction Center for much of the southeastern U.S. It is likely, that as we get closer to Saturday, we will see a moderate risk for severe storms to be highlighted. At this point, I would be leaning from central Tennessee through Alabama but things can still change so I encourage you to stay up-to-date for the very latest.
I am also strongly encouraging you to have a severe weather notification system near you at all times so you can be alerted when severe weather becomes imminent. This can include a radio, tv, weather radio or best of all Weather Call. I use Weather Call to keep my family safe and I recommend it for you, too. Never heard of Weather Call before? What is it? It is a notification service that can notify you up to 3 different ways anytime a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued for your registered location. It uses geo positioning and compares your location to that of the warning and only notifies you when you are in the warned area. It is much more accurate than a weather radio because the warnings you receive from a weather radio is for an entire county while Weather Call is much more specific. I encourage you to learn more by clicking here. You can also subscribe for just $6.95 per year. If you are not sure if it is worth the investment than please read what others have said.
If you have thought that it has been dry for this time of year you are correct. Since the start of meteorological Spring, March 1, Huntsville is more than 4" below normal and more than 6" below normal since the start of the year. For the Shoals, it is a similar story with being just shy of 4.5" below normal since March 1 and more than 5.5" below normal since the start of the year. The dryness is also now leading to portions of northwest Alabama into central Tennessee to be classified as "Abnormally Dry" by the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The lag of rainfall has helped to lead to one of the worst allergy seasons I can remember in quite some time, at least regarding the way I have had to deal with them and I know I am not alone. The sniffles and red eyes are everywhere across the Tennessee Valley. Monday's pollen count for Huntsville remains in the "Very High" category with trees, again, the main culprit. The top 3 tree species being responsible for the allergy madness are Oak, Pine and Walnut/Butternut. In addition, a low concentration of grass was noted.
We had a few rain showers pass through the Tennessee Valley Monday night into early Tuesday. Unfortunately, it was enough to cleanse the air and instead helped take the yellow dust we have seen on our cars and outdoor stuff and make it into a yellow paste. WooHoo! But real relief may soon arrive. Off to the west, approaching the California coast, a potent upper level low pressure system is heading to make its presence known. You can see the system clearly on the water vapor imagery.
This storm system will bring an unusually cool period to the southwestern U.S. through Saturday with afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s as the rule. It will also be quite rainy, too, with most of West seeing some rainfall. Some spots may see in excess of 2" By Friday morning, this storm system will move into the High Plains. The high pressure that is currently bringing us cooler weather will be sliding southeastward into Florida. This will work in conjunction with the approaching western storm system by delivering a strong southerly flow by Friday. This will help increase the moisture flow out of the Gulf of Mexico and set up the increased potential for widespread rainfall across the center of the nation by Friday evening. The storm system will be dynamic and that will help to fire thunderstorms with the rainfall. Some of these storms could become strong to even severe across the Southern Plains, Friday afternoon/evening.
The storm system will move into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley late Friday night through the day Saturday. With it will come the best chance for rainfall we have seen in several weeks. We may even see a threat for some strong to severe thunderstorms, something I encourage you to monitor. Computer forecasts are indicating the potential of an 1" or more or rainfall for Saturday for the Tennessee Valley. This would be welcomed rainfall for the allergy suffers and the farmers of the Valley.
But a Possible Phase Change in the Eruption May Be in Process
Image from NASA showing Ash Plume from Monday
The volcano that had brought air travel in Europe to nearly a complete stand still continues to erupt, today; however, there are signs that the volcano may be changing its phase of eruption from the current explosive and ash abundant one to one more of lava flows. Here is was the most recent update from the Icelandic Meteorological Office:
"At 04 o'clock this morning, seismic tremors indicated that lava flow might have begun in Eyjafjallajökull.
At 08:50 the ash cloud reached a height of 4 km, which is less than in recent days. This would suggest that water inflow at the crater is decreasing and that the ash producing phase of this eruption (see photos) is giving way to a phase of lava flow.
The Icelandic Coast Guard flew this morning (19 April) over the site and observed, at 10:30, magma splatters thrown 1.5 - 3 km into the air by explosions in the crater. No photos are available of this phenomenon at IMO yet.
Magma splatters have accumulated on the crater's rim. Splatters of magma have also fallen on the ice around the crater and this gives rise to steam plumes.
In spite of the ejected batches of liquid magma, no lava flow from the craters was detected. South of the eruptive site, the ash clouds reached 5-6 km height."
This was the view this morning at 0840 CDT from one of the webcams from near the volcano
There is other good news, too, related to the volcano. Air travel is beginning to resume with flights resuming in many European nations and again across the Atlantic to North America. Eurocontrol, the agency overseeing European air space, is predicting 14,000 flights to occur, today. That compares to a normal Tuesday of about 27,500 flights. They are also predicting that after today, more than 95,000 flights will have been cancelled since last Thursday, April 15.
The bad news is that the jetstream wind pattern will continue to track any ash to the southeast towards mainland Europe and any increase in the explosive nature of the eruption could once again sharply reduce flight air space over Europe.
A cold front passed through the TN Valley on Saturday and that has allowed for cooler air to filter into the region. How cool? We will see some morning low temperatures, Sunday, near 40 degrees! Generally a nice start to the week; however, a weak disturbance will pass us by Monday evening into Tuesday. Some model forecasts indicate the potential for a few showers with its passage but I anticipate it will remain dry with only a sprinkle or two at best. That may not be the case, though, by late week. A strong south-southwesterly flow will set up by Thursday and this will allow temperatures to quickly warm again into the 80s for highs. In addition, this flow will finally tap into some Gulf of Mexico moisture and that will aid in the possibility of finally see some well needed. pollen cleansing, rainfall Friday night into Saturday. It even appears we may see some thunderstorms, too.
Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well. Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.
The weather in the Tennessee Valley is absolutely beautiful and nearly resort-like. This is providing for great weather for any outdoor plans you may have. In addition, with it being Spring, that is providing an added beauty, too, flowering plants and trees. So where can you go and enjoy both the weather and the flowers? The answer to that question is an easy one, the Huntsville Botanical Garden. I took my two-year old twins there, today, and we had a terrific time. The kids loved the Tremendous Treehouses exhibit and played on all of them. Yes, even my two-year olds were able to enjoy the treehouses and play safely.
The colors of the Garden were outstanding, too, from the tulips, to the pansies, to the wild flowers along the nature trail. It was also a real treat to see the landmark dogwood of the Garden in full bloom. The sad thing was to learn that half of this 100 year old beauty had died and been cut off. The Garden also informed me that this would likely be the last year of bloom for this beauty. Some of you may recall this tree was moved from a home's yard about 15 years ago and moved to the Garden.
I hope you are able to get out and enjoy this weather and will give strong consideration to heading to the Garden. I promise, you won't be disappointed.
Note: This Thursday through Sunday will also be the Garden's annual plant sale. You can come to the Garden and purchase high-quality and beautiful plants. The sale consists of hundreds of different plant species grown at the Garden and now for sale. New for 2010 will be the availability of berry and fruit trees. You can also meet the master gardeners of the Garden and have you soil's pH tested.
April has begun on a warm note for much of the Eastern U.S. Since April 1st, nearly 800 new record high temperatures have been set. For a complete list you can visit the National Climatic Data Center's Website. A change is coming and is already cooling it off to a return to Spring, across the Plains. Temperatures behind a frontal system have dropped into the 40s and 30s across Nebraska and South Dakota, as of midday Tuesday. In addition, some snow was falling in northwest Nebraska westward into Wyoming. This storm system will be heading eastward through midweek. The warmth will remain ahead of the system with more 80s and even a few 90s from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic.
As the cooler air heads eastward and mixes with the warmer and more humid air, thunderstorms will fire. They will first start across eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward to the Red River late Tuesday afternoon through evening. Overnight and into Wednesday, they will spread to the Gulf Coast and Mississippi River. They will continue eastward moving through Wednesday night and into Thursday, reaching the Appalachians by midday Thursday.
Some of the storms will be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight Risk" for severe storms through 7 AM Wednesday from southwest Michigan through the Chicagoland area and much of western Missouri into the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma.
The Day 2 risk area, 7 AM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday, moves into the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Behind the front, temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler for a couple of days before the warm-up begins again.
Shakespeare's Wolf - Who Drilled Cock Robin? This isn't Mother Goose's fairy tale, but rather a naughty taudry nursery rhyme. Listen up and you'll hear a tale, a tale of a big bad Wolf and a cute little bird.
Confessions of a Nymphomaniac NUMBER 5 - Horse Sense. Miss Vicki, our insatiable sex lover is back in the saddle again. This time she reveals the secrets that most girls don't want guys to know. Ever the erotic admistress, Miss Vicki gives the down and dirty about her little pony! Ride him cowgirl!
This new feature reports on sex and sexcapades that have made the news recently. Some you may have heard of, but most you probably haven't. One thing is for sure, though, there is some really weird shit going on out there!!
Shakespeare's Wolf - Rebecca of Tribeca - What's the difference between a gourmet and a glutton? Is it quality versus quantity? Shakespeare's Wolf defines his limits and farm animals are not part of it, so Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm she's not!
Shakespeare's Wolf Trilogy- Part Three of Three - Good Things Cum in Threes! The Wolf, having huffed and puffed three nude little piglets, is surprised to discover who's been sleeping in his bed.
Shakespeare's Wolf Trilogy- Part Two of Three - Let's Go Dutch. The Wolf is a real animal when he discovers a great Dane that's not a dog. It's a tale of a tail just on the tail of another tale's tail, the tail in Part One, and Tale Number Two is to be continued too!
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As with getting visitors or potential customers in any other aspect of your online business, it is going to take some promotion.
There are a ton of directories and search engines specifically catering to blogs, and it is probably in the best interest of your blog's readership to get it listed in as many as possible. Start with us and sumbmit your feed at once, it only takes a couple of seconds.
Snowfall is likely to be near to a bit above normal along and north of the I-70 corridor. A bit more specific snowfall forecast will be released later.
Here are some specifics:
Best fall color this year will likely be across the Rockies and through the Great Lakes where average to above average precipitation has occurred. The peak of color may be a bit slower to arrive, though, due to the predicted above normal temperatures. I would anticipate about 1 to 2 weeks later than the normal depicted in the map below.
The Storm Force 31 model is a bit east and south of the center of the official track; drifting the center of the system towards Montgomery, Alabama by midday Sunday.
DeKalb Counties. The first impacted the communities of Albertville and Geraldine.
